FCC Drone Ban Guarantees Higher Prices and Fewer Choices: NBC’s ‘Could’ is Wrong

NBC News published a detailed analysis this weekend examining the FCC’s sweeping foreign drone ban and its likely impact on American consumers. The reporting is solid, the sources are credible, and the conclusion is inevitable. But the headline hedges with “could raise prices and shrink choices” when every expert they interviewed confirms it absolutely will.

We have been covering this supply chain reality for over a year. The math is not complicated. China manufactures 70% to 90% of drones used in America and controls close to 90% of the global drone market. DJI alone holds over two-thirds of the American personal and commercial drone market. When you ban the dominant supplier without viable alternatives, prices rise. That is not speculation. That is economics.

The development

NBC News interviewed 12 American drone manufacturers, experts, former defense officials, and investors about the FCC ban’s impact. The unanimous assessment confirms what we have been reporting since December 22: the United States lacks the manufacturing capacity, supply chains, and component availability to replace Chinese drones at competitive prices for years to come.

• The reality: Chris Larson, CEO of drone-component manufacturer Standard Systems, told NBC: “It’s an absolute s—show. It’s terrible. The United States doesn’t make any drone components.”
• The timeline: Analysts estimate it will take two to three years before the U.S. has “quite a few manufacturers,” and even then production will not match Chinese scale.
• The source: Read the full NBC News report for the complete expert analysis.

American manufacturers confirm the supply chain gap

The FCC’s December 22, 2025 ban added all foreign-made drones and UAS critical components to the Covered List, blocking new FCC authorizations for foreign flight controllers, batteries, motors, navigation systems, and ground control stations. The scope extends far beyond DJI to include the entire global supply chain that American manufacturers depend on.

Ben Barani, chief operating officer at Standard Systems, explained the fundamental economic disadvantage to NBC:

“The Chinese are so heavily subsidized in all industries, but specifically in the drone world, that they’re able to offer drones at a lower price. Companies in the U.S. are basically on their own, so they have to pay for all the research and development costs, all the operational costs, on their own.”

We documented this exact dynamic when Skydio faced a supply chain crisis after Beijing sanctions cut off their battery supplier in October 2024. Skydio, the largest U.S. drone maker and the flagship American alternative to DJI, was forced to ration batteries because China controlled their supply chain. The FCC just banned foreign batteries. But the American alternative to DJI was already dependent on Chinese batteries.

Hobbyists and businesses face immediate cost increases

Olaf Hichwa, co-founder of defense technology company Neros Technologies and an avid drone racer, provided NBC with the most honest assessment:

“My personal hobby will get more expensive. My drones will probably get worse and harder to buy. There will be pain. Anyone who says that this is going to be easy probably doesn’t understand the problem fully. Industrial bases are not built overnight.”

Hichwa’s company has raised $121 million and won Pentagon contracts to build FPV drones with China-free supply chains. He understands the manufacturing reality better than most. And he is telling Americans to expect pain.

The agricultural sector is already feeling these effects. The Texas Farm Bureau warned that limited availability of drones and parts could prevent farmers and ranchers from adequately managing pesticide and fertilizer use, monitoring crop stress, and checking livestock. Agricultural drones registered with the FAA leaped from roughly 1,000 in January 2024 to around 5,500 by mid-2025. That growth trajectory just hit a wall.

Public safety agencies face equipment crises

More than 87% of public safety drones in the United States are DJI. Over 80% of state and local public safety agencies, including fire departments, sheriff’s offices, search-and-rescue teams, and local police, rely on DJI drones for everything from wildfire response to missing person searches to flood rescues. A recent survey of over 8,000 drone operators found that 13% of respondents from public safety agencies used fleets including Skydio drones, compared with almost 97% that include DJI drones.

NBC reports that agencies could switch to American drones from manufacturers like Skydio, but “the switch would most likely increase short-term costs and require new infrastructure in the face of smaller production numbers.” This understates the problem. Florida destroyed $200 million in functional public safety drones citing Chinese espionage threats, provided only $25 million for inferior replacements that catch fire and fall from the sky, and never published the security analysis that was supposed to justify it all.

First responders testified to Florida legislators about catastrophic equipment failures. Orlando Police Sergeant David Cruz told lawmakers:

“With DJI in five years of DJI, we saw no losses, no issues, no failures. In one and a half years, approximately between two different manufacturers, we had a total of five losses.”

The component dependency runs deeper than most realize

NBC correctly identifies that key drone components like motors, batteries, electronics, and sensors largely come from intricate supply chains in China. But the problem is even more fundamental than their reporting suggests. China produces 99% of the world’s drone batteries. The New York Times reports that analysts estimate it would take at least half a decade for U.S. manufacturers to produce enough battery cells to meet domestic demand.

A Silicon Valley defense-tech founder recently wrote a Forbes column that demolishes optimistic narratives about American drone independence. The U.S. drone industry has roughly 500 companies with combined annual output under 100,000 units. Meanwhile, Ukraine produces 2 million FPV drones annually through decentralized workshops. Chinese factories produce that in two days.

The rare-earth dependency adds another layer. According to U.S. Geological Survey data, America imported 72% of its rare-earth compounds and metals from China between 2019 and 2022. Brushless motors depend on high-strength magnets. Magnets depend on rare-earth supply chains. You can assemble a drone in Ohio with motors wound in Texas, but if the magnets inside those motors come from Chinese-refined rare earths, how “American” is that supply chain?

Skydio cannot fill the gap

NBC mentions Skydio as an American alternative but understates why that alternative is inadequate. Skydio left the consumer drone market in 2023. They discontinued the Skydio 2+ for consumer purchase and now concentrate exclusively on enterprise, first responder, and defense applications. This was not a choice born of preference. It was a tacit admission that competing with DJI on price and features in open markets is nearly impossible.

Skydio’s X10 costs $10,000 to $15,000 compared to DJI’s Matrice 30 at $6,500, while DJI’s consumer drones with comparable capabilities start around $2,000 to $5,000. For recreational pilots who got into aviation through a $299 DJI Mini, there is no American equivalent at any price point.

Even GoPro and Sony, companies with deep supply chains and world-class engineering, could not compete with DJI. GoPro’s Karma drone failed in 2016 and the company exited the market entirely. Sony’s Airpeak never gained meaningful market traction despite the company’s imaging technology expertise. If Sony and GoPro could not “wake the giant,” why do we assume startups with a fraction of their capital can do it overnight?

The exemptions do not solve the problem

The FCC’s January 7 exemptions created pathways for Blue UAS-approved drones and domestically manufactured products meeting a 65% domestic content threshold. But Blue UAS platforms from manufacturers like Skydio, Parrot, and Teledyne FLIR were not designed for the hobbyist market. They command premium prices and lack the features recreational pilots expect.

The 65% domestic content threshold sounds achievable until you start adding up motor costs, flight controller costs, and camera sensor costs. As Chris Miller, author of “Chip War,” noted in the Financial Times, an FCC ban makes new DJI drones unavailable at any price. The fundamental challenge that no policy tool can solve is China’s manufacturing scale advantage, which makes American alternatives uncompetitive regardless of which regulatory approach Washington chooses.

DroneXL’s Take

NBC News did solid reporting but pulled its punch in the headline. Every single expert they interviewed, from American drone manufacturers to defense-tech founders to trade association executives, confirmed that prices will rise and choices will shrink. The word “could” suggests uncertainty where none exists.

I have been flying DJI drones for nearly a decade and covering this industry professionally for just as long. I watched Skydio exit the consumer market because they could not compete. I watched GoPro and Sony fail. I watched Florida destroy $200 million in functional public safety equipment. None of the experts NBC interviewed said prices might stay stable or choices might remain plentiful. They all said pain is coming.

The administration says it wants to “unleash American drone dominance.” But you do not build dominance by eliminating the products that get people interested in drones in the first place. Today’s recreational drone pilot is tomorrow’s aerospace engineer, military drone operator, or commercial pilot. Kill the on-ramp, and you kill the talent pipeline.

Six months from now, expect secondary market prices for existing DJI inventory to spike as remaining stock depletes. Expect American manufacturers to raise prices because they can. Expect first responder agencies to defer equipment purchases they cannot afford. And expect recreational pilots to either pay premium prices for inferior equipment or exit the hobby entirely.

That is not speculation. That is what happens when you ban 90% of supply without building alternatives first.

Editorial Note: This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI to ensure technical accuracy and archive retrieval. All insights, industry analysis, and perspectives were provided exclusively by Haye Kesteloo and our other DroneXL authors, editors, and Youtube partners to ensure the “Human-First” perspective our readers expect.